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Akcie.cz»Zpravodajství»Komentáře a doporučení»Czech Equity Daily: 11/05/10; CEZ, Macro

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Czech Equity Daily: 11/05/10; CEZ, Macro

11.05.2010 09:25:27 | Atlantik

Index PX: 1,233 points (up 7.5% d/d); volume: CZK 3,491m (USD 171m)

 

CEZ: Neutral. LT: Hold. Target price: CZK 950.

CEZ just released its 1Q2010 results. Overall, we see 1Q2010 results as fully in line with market expectation and ours expectation. Consolidated EBITDA in 1Q2010 reached CZK 27.3 bn (-9.6% y/y). The main reason for the fall of the operating performance was the fall in average wholesale electricity prices to 54 EUR/MW (baseload), from 62 EUR/MW in 1Q2009. On the other hand 1Q2010 results were positively affected by the rise in domestic demand and rise in nuclear power plants generation (+8.0% y/y). EBITDA margin decreased by 6.0 p.p. and reached 50.7%. Sales in 1Q2010 positively surprised us and the market and reached CZK 53.9 bn (-0.1% y/r). On the other hand operating cost were also higher than expected, so higher sales were fully compensated and operating level is fully in line with us and the market. As a results of fall on the operating level also bottom level decreased in y/y comparison and NI reached CZK 17.5 bn (-8.6% y/y).

CEZ announced that its full year guidance for 2010 stay at the same level as in previous guidance announcement (so EBITDA CZK 88.7 bn, NI CZK 46.7 bn). We expect 2010 EBITDA to reach CZK 89.2 bn.

CEZ also announced that CEZ´s board of directors propose gross dividend of CZK 53/share (5.7% div. yield, 55% payout ratio). We expected CEZ to payout CZK 54/share. Dividend record day is the date of AGM (so June 29). We do not expect any strong market reaction to 1Q2010 results, dividend proposal and guidance confirmation. On the other we expect fall of CEZ shares due to the expected market correction.

 

CZK m, consolidated (IFRS)

1Q2010

y/y

1Q2009

Market

eAFT

Sales

53,886

-0.1%

53,952

51,760

50,086

EBITDA

27,331

-9.6%

30,227

27,490

27,466

   EBITDA margin

50.7%

-6.0pps

56.7%

52.9%

54.8%

EBIT

21,691

-12.5%

24,797

21,510

21,844

   EBIT margin

40.3%

-6.3pps

46.5%

41.9%

43.6%

Net income

17,455

-8.6%

19,091

17,160

17,162

Source: CEZ, ATLANTIK FT

 

Rating – Moody‘s

Moody’s warned the Czech Republic yesterday that if the new government after election (May 28-29) does not introduce a credible plan to stabilize the public finance the rating could be in threat. The Czech republic has rating at the level of A1 from Moody’s. The agency also called on pension reform and the overhaul of health care system.

Rival S&P’s send a simile warning to the Czech republic early.

 

CPI - April

Inflation in April accelerated to 1.1% y/y from 0.7% in April. In month-on-month comparison, the price level was up by 0.3% m/m. Fuel prices further rose by 2.2% m/m reaching the new 1.5-year high. This effect was added by the rise of natural gas prices (3.3% m/m). There was also seasonal effect – an increase of clothing prices (1.3%).Other price movements were only minor. Inflation pressures have remained low reflecting weaknesses of consumer demand. This year we expect the inflation of 1.5% on average.

Unemployment - April

The unemployment rate in April dropped by a half of percent to 9.2% beating expectations (AFT and market: 9.4%). There were sings in February-March that the labour market might be getting to the bottom. The April figures supported it and the unemployment rate fell beside seasonal effects. In April, the start of outdoor works reduces usually the unemployment by 4 tents while this year the rate dropped by 1 tents above seasonality.  The number of newly registered job seekers was still high (53 thousand) but lowering in year-on-year comparison third months in row. Further, the number of registered job seekers who found employment increased (65 thousand) and was even the highest in history of time series since 2004. This year we expect the unemployment rate to stay at 9.5% in average.

Autor: Atlantik FT

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