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Akcie.cz»Zpravodajství»Komentáře a doporučení»Unipetrol´s 1Q 2010 figures beat expectations - update

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Unipetrol´s 1Q 2010 figures beat expectations - update

13.05.2010 12:13:06 | Atlantik

Conclusion

 

Unipetrol today before market open released its figures for 1Q 2010 that beat expectation. Total consolidated sales reached CZK 18bn (+24.3% y/y) and were better than our forecast of CZK 17.8bn. Behind the growth are growing crude oil prices what lead to production prices increase in all segment as the volumes were lower y/y. EBIT at CZK 517m also beat expectation of CZK 403m due to better refinery margins. Finally also the net income was positively seen at CZK 309m vs. exp. CZK 257m.

We expect positive market reaction due to stronger than expected figures what is showing currently up as the stock adds some 2.5% d/d.

 

Analysis

 

Sales

Total consolidated sales reached CZK 18bn (up 24.3% y/y) i.e. above our estimates (AFT and market´s CZK 17.5-17.8bn) due to crude price increase what lead to price increases in all segments as the volumes sold were lower. The volumes at refinery segment were 14% lower y/y, at petrochemical segment down 2.0% and retail fuel sales down 7.0% (AFT expectation as Unipetrol did not reveal its data).

Table 1: Sales

CZK m

Refinery

Retail

Petrochemicals

Other

Sum.

1Q2010

9,027

1,698

7,254

59

18,038

1Q2009

8,181

1,432

4,878

20

14,512

Source. Unipetrol.

 

Operations

EBITDA at CZK 1.4bn (+90.7% y/y) was better than expected (CZK 1.3bn). the margin then grew to 7.4% (+2.5 p.p.) what is in line with projection. EBIT at CZK 517m strongly beat projections (CZK 403m). Depreciation was flat at CZK 835m vs. exp. CZK 860m.

Behind the y/y and also y/y improvement lies better refinery efficiency i.e. growth of refinery margin to 4.0 USD/bbl. EBIT at refinery segment ended at CZK 279m surplus compared to CZK 329m loss in 1Q09. Also retail segment (Benzina) upgraded as the high margins from 2H09 hold and the EBIT from that segment ended in CZK 131m surplus. Petrochemical segment EBIT was y/y a bit weaker at CZK 97m compared to CZK 110m in 1Q09.

Table 2: Operations (EBIT)

CZK m

Refinery

Retail

Petrochemicals

Other

Sum.

1Q2010

279

131

97

10

516

1Q2009

-329

57

110

35

-127

Source. Unipetrol.

 

Net income

Net financial cost reached CZK 147m i.e. y/y increase from CZK 102m due to FX, what was higher than our projection of CZK 120m. Higher operational performance lead also to better net income what was only supported by lower effective tax rate (lower statutory rate) at CZK 309m i.e. beat expectation of CZK 257m. .

 

Recommendation

We rate the news positive as the figures beat expectation. The trading is also positive as the shares add some 2.5% d/d to CZK 205 but at open it stood at CZK 210.

Our investment recommendation is currently in revision and we will update it in coming days. We will factor in better efficiency from 1Q but on the other hand we do not assume that the refinery segment 1Q performance will hold for the whole year. We expect a correction in it in coming quarters as the 1Q was affected by one-off positive issues (some refinery shutdowns in Europe).

 

Table 3: 1Q 2010 Results summary

cons. (IFRS), CZK m

1Q2010

r/r

eMarket

eAFT

Sales

18,038

24.3%

17,766

17,482

EBITDA

1,352

90.7%

1,256

1,298

   Margin

7.4%

2.5 p.b.

7.1%

7.4%

EBIT

517

n.m.

403

438

   Margin

2.5%

3.4 p.b.

2.3%

2.5%

NI

309

n.m.

257

257

EPS (CZK p.a.)

6.8

n.m.

5.7

5.7

Source: Unipetrol, ATLANTIK FT projection.

Autor: Petr Novak

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