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Akcie.cz»Zpravodajství»Komentáře a doporučení»ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021

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ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021

14.03.2022 10:38:00 | Fio banka
ČEZ zítra před otevřením trhu oznámí výsledky hospodaření za 4Q 2021, resp. celý loňský rok. Konferenční hovor s managementem společnosti bude následovat od 16h.

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Odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021
 mld. Kč4Q 2021Konsensus trhu*4Q 2020

y/y

Výnosy 55,9 57,7 58,2 -4,0 %
EBITDA 13,4 13,6 13,9 -3,6 %
EBIT 6,1 5,8 -10,6 -
Čistý zisk
4,6 4,5 4,1 12,2 %
Zisk na akcii (Kč)
8,6  - 7,7 11,7 %

*medián podle průzkumu společnosti ČEZ

Pozn.: Čistý zisk a zisk na akcii jsou očištěné o mimořádné nehotovostní vlivy, meziroční srovnání na úrovni EBIT je ovlivněno opravnými položkami, včetně snížení hodnoty goodwillů (zejména ve vztahu k rumunským aktivům), ve výši 18,4 mld. Kč zaúčtovanými ve 4Q 2020

 

ČEZ by měl představit solidní poslední kvartál loňského roku. Není žádným překvapením, že stěžejní roli bude hrát výrobní segment, jenž bude opět těžit především z vyšších cen elektřiny, nicméně přispět by měla i vyšší produkce z jaderných elektráren. ČEZ již v listopadu předeslal, že za celý rok 2021 očekává prodejní cenu silové elektřiny v blízkosti 52 EUR/MWh. To je meziroční nárůst o cca 14 %, což podle našich odhadů může přinést do EBITDA za 4Q 2021 včetně možné kompenzace negativních vlivů z 1H 2021 plynoucích z přecenění zajišťovacích komoditních kontraktů zhruba 2 mld. Kč. Vedle toho se ČEZu evidentně dařilo vyrábět ze svých jaderných elektráren. Z již zveřejněného celoročního čísla 30,7 GWh vyplývá, že produkce za 4Q 2021 stoupla o velmi slušných téměř 10 % na 8,7 TWh. To podle našich predikcí přinese do EBITDA meziroční impuls ve výši 0,8 mld. Kč.

Silně dynamický a turbulentní vývoj na tržních cenách elektřiny z konce roku 2021, kdy spotové kontrakty „vystřelovaly“ i přes hranici 300 EUR, resp. 400 EUR navíc skýtá potenciál ještě o něco vylepšit výše zmíněnou očekávanou průměrnou realizační cenu 52 EUR, resp. skýtá možnosti pro případné zisky z tradingu. Námi předpokládaný celkový příspěvek plynoucí z cen elektřiny a výroby z jádra ve výši cca 2,8 mld. Kč tak může být ještě o něco výraznější. Výše zmíněné příznivé faktory budou nadále tlumeny vyššími cenami, resp. náklady na emisní povolenky s námi předpokládaným negativním vlivem v rozmezí 1 – 1,5 mld. Kč. Stoupající ceny emisních povolenek podle našeho názoru tlumily výrobu z uhlí a zemního plynu s námi odhadovaným negativním dopadem do provozní ziskovosti kolem 0,4 mld. Kč. To se mohlo nepříznivě přenášet i do těžby uhlí, kde předpokládáme mírný pokles provozní výkonnosti o 0,2 mld. Kč.

Distribuční segment by si měl udržet stabilitu, resp. s odhadovanou EBITDA ve výši 4,6 mld. Kč čekáme mírný meziroční pokles o 0,2 mld. Kč poté, co 4Q 2020 byl poměrně silný a rovněž nové regulační podmínky stanovené pro období 2021 - 2025 tlumily ziskovost v roce 2021. Naopak prodejní segment si podle našeho názoru v závěru loňského roku vylepší pozici, a to zejména díky ESCO službám, které předloni zažívaly covidový útlum. Impuls by měl přijít zejména z Německa, celkový příspěvek segmentu prodej očekáváme ve výši 0,1 – 0,2 mld. Kč.

Ve 4Q 2021 již nebyly součástí ČEZu rumunské a bulharské divize, které byly prodány v 1Q, resp. 3Q 2021. Absence Rumunska a Bulharska znamená pro 4Q 2021 výpadek do EBITDA cca 1,2 mld. Kč. To v celkovém výsledku, i přes výše zmíněný pozitivní vliv cen elektřiny a výroby z jádra, podle našich odhadů posouvá celkový EBITDA zisk za 4Q 2021 na úroveň 13,4 mld. Kč. To znamená mírný pokles z předloňských 13,9 mld. Kč.

Na úrovni čisté ziskovosti naopak předpokládáme zlepšení, a to hlavně díky mimořádnému výnosu ve výši 1,5 mld. Kč. Jedná se o úroky z prodlení obdržených od státu v souvislosti s dřívějšími spory ohledně darovací daně z emisních povolenek. Očištěný čistý zisk tak za 4Q 2021 predikujeme meziročně výše o 12,2 % na 4,6 mld. Kč.

Námi odhadované zisky za 4Q 2021 indikují překonání celoročního výhledu EBITDA, resp. očištěného čistého zisku, jenž byl managementem ČEZu v listopadu upřesněn do rozmezí 59 – 60 mld. Kč, resp. 19 – 21 mld. Kč. Konkrétně tak za celý rok 2021 vidíme EBITDA na hladině 60,9 mld. Kč (v roce 2020 činila 64,8 mld. Kč) a očištěný čistý zisk na úrovni 21,5 mld. Kč (předloni činil 22,8 mld. Kč).

Uvidíme, zda management společnosti vedle čísel za rok 2021 rovněž neoznámí návrh letošní dividendy. Nebývá to zvykem takto v březnu, v posledních letech ČEZ oznamuje dividendu v dubnu či květnu. Potvrzujeme náš odhad ve výši 43 Kč na akcii, když očekáváme, že ČEZ vyplatí celý loňský zisk plus část příjmu z prodeje bulharských aktiv.

Velmi sledovaným číslem bude tradičně výhled hospodaření na rok 2022. Aktuálně o to více, když tržní ceny elektřiny prošly v posledních měsících prudkým růstem, což by se mělo výrazně pozitivně projevit do ziskovosti ČEZu již od letošního roku. Naše aktuální predikce letošní EBITDA, resp. čisté ziskovosti činí 72,3 mld. Kč, resp. 28,8 mld. Kč.

 


Jan Raška, analytik, Fio banka, a.s.


Jan Raška, analytik, Fio banka, a.s.

Autor: Jan Raška

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ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021:  ČEZ

"" Ono svářet se musí umět a nenaučí se to za 3týdny v kurzu. ""


Před časem tady se mnou vedli oba experti na všechno ( JenTak s kavolem ) peprnou diskuzi na téma wiki-studie. Že prý nač se něco učit nebo studovat, že všechno je na wikipedii :-)))))))))))))))
Tak proč bychom nemohli s nimi postavit jadernou el. za pomocí wikipedie ?


Jinak souhlas. V současných podmínkách si u nás vůbec nedovedu představit výstavbu jad. el.

ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021:  ČEZ

Třeba až noví politici vylezou s tím,že si nový bloky zaplatí čez,a všichni ví jaká bude cena bez konkurence a jak ti zbývající staví a nedostaví. A třeba Francouzi teď neumí včas ani servisovat stávající bloky.
Ono svářet se musí umět a nenaučí se to za 3týdny v kurzu.

ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021:  ČEZ

Prečo si myslíš,že dôjde k výraznému poklesu?

ČEZ: odhady hospodaření za 4Q 2021:  ČEZ

Budeme nakupovat po výrazném poklesu.

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Zajímavé vzestupy

PEN87,60+2,58
SHELL640,20+1,98
KOMB615,00+1,15
AVAST202,00+1,05
SKAB397,50+0,66

Zajímavé poklesy

JUVE10,00-4,76
DBK211,65-2,87
CEZ1 039,00-1,98
TABAK17 000,00-1,96
PILLE1 000,00-1,96

Kurzovní lístek

EURdolu24,625-0,06
HUFnahoru6,046+0,44
JPYnahoru17,886+0,29
PLNnahoru5,184+0,51
USDdolu24,495-1,30

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Indexy

Pro úplné zobrazení je nutné mít nainstalován Flash Player, dostupný např. zde.

Flash | Obr?zek

PXdolu-0,711 221,5416:15:23
RMdolu-0,91455,9016:57:44
DJIAdolu-0,8533 711,0521:40:22
NASDAQdolu-1,9612 710,9621:40:18
SP500stejne0,004 357,7322.09.21
DAXdolu-1,1213 544,5217:35:30


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